North Carolina 1–2 Rio Grande Valley

North Carolina

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Rio Grande Valley

J. Servania 45'

F. Nodarse 79'

F. López 54'

4/6/2022

US Open Cup · 2nd RoundWakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

North Carolina60%

×Draw21%

Rio Grande Valley18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North CarolinaExpected goals in this matchRio Grande Valley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.00

North Carolina

2.00

Rio Grande Valley

1.00

North Carolina creates 100% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.33

creates per match

1.33

0.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

North Carolina

2.33

Rio Grande Valley

1.33

allows per match

North Carolina

0.67

Rio Grande Valley

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Carolina+0.00on par

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina ↓

Rio Grande Valley →

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

North Carolina or draw

82%

North Carolina or Rio Grande Valley

79%

Draw or Rio Grande Valley

40%

Winning margin

North Carolina wins by 2+

36%

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+

Team goals

North Carolina 1+ goals

86%

North Carolina 2+ goals

59%

North Carolina 3+ goals

32%

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals

63%

Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals

26%

Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals

Draw no bet

North Carolina (draw refunded)

77%

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

North Carolina at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina attack 2.33 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.33 + North Carolina defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

North Carolina scores more

60%

level

21%

Rio Grande Valley scores more

18%

North Carolina at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "North Carolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

N. Flores

45+2'

F. Nodarse

45'

J. Servania

53'

O. Anderson

54'

F. López↳ I. Martinez

77'

C. Young

79'

F. Nodarse↳ R. Ruiz

82'

R. Frame← O. Anderson

82'

D. Herrera← R. Ruiz

82'

J. Cabezas← F. Nodarse

88'

D. Kerr← R. Sommersall

88'

R. Coronado← F. López

89'

C. Tolentino← N. Martinez

90+2'

J. Ricketts

90+4'

C. Tolentino

90'

M. Flick← C. Young

North

Rio

▼

⚽

▼

Nodarse

Martinez

Ycaza

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: J. Bradford

82'▲R. Frame←▼O. Anderson

88'▲D. Kerr←▼R. Sommersall

89'▲C. Tolentino←▼N. Martinez

90'▲M. Flick←▼C. Young

North Carolina substitutes

11Frame22Kerr29Tolentino4Flick1Holliday31Rincon25Fischer

Manager: W. Cabrera

82'▲D. Herrera←▼R. Ruiz

82'▲J. Cabezas←▼F. Nodarse

88'▲R. Coronado←▼F. López

Rio Grande Valley substitutes

13Herrera5Cabezas21Coronado24Malešević22Torres25Garcia2Sáez

Match Recap: North Carolina vs Rio Grande Valley

Rio Grande Valley beat North Carolina 2-1 in US Open Cup on April 6, 2022.

Goals: J. Servania (45'), F. López (54'), F. Nodarse (79').

The match was played at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary, North Carolina.

North Carolina vs Rio Grande Valley — US Open Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: North Carolina vs Rio Grande Valley