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North Carolina vs Nashville — USL Championship 2018

North Carolina
North Carolina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nashville
Nashville
6/29/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 30Sahlen's Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, North Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

North Carolina40%
×Draw26%
Nashville34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina
1.39
Nashville
1.26

North Carolina creates 10% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 34 away

creates per match

North Carolina
1.83
Nashville
1.29

allows per match

North Carolina
1.23
Nashville
0.94

finishing

North Carolina+0.00on par
Nashville+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina ↓

Nashville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

North Carolina or draw
66%
North Carolina or Nashville
74%
Draw or Nashville
60%

Winning margin

North Carolina wins by 2+
19%
Nashville wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

North Carolina 1+ goals
75%
North Carolina 2+ goals
40%
North Carolina 3+ goals
16%
Nashville 1+ goals
72%
Nashville 2+ goals
36%
Nashville 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

North Carolina (draw refunded)
54%
Nashville (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

Nashville away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina attack 1.83 + Nashville defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.39

Nashville attack 1.29 + North Carolina defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

North Carolina scores more
40%
level
26%
Nashville scores more
34%

North Carolina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "North Carolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Carolina vs Nashville

North Carolina beat Nashville 1-0 in USL Championship on June 29, 2019.

The match was played at Sahlen's Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, North Carolina).