North Carolina 1–2 Inter Miami II: Result & Stats

North Carolina

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Inter Miami II

6/5/2021

USL League One · Round 4WakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

North Carolina46%

×Draw24%

Inter Miami II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North CarolinaExpected goals in this matchInter Miami II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.26

North Carolina

1.64

Inter Miami II

1.26

North Carolina creates 30% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 22 away

1.50

creates per match

1.09

1.43

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

North Carolina

1.50

Inter Miami II

1.09

allows per match

North Carolina

1.43

Inter Miami II

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Carolina+0.00on par

Inter Miami II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina ↓

Inter Miami II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

North Carolina or draw

71%

North Carolina or Inter Miami II

76%

Draw or Inter Miami II

54%

Winning margin

North Carolina wins by 2+

24%

Inter Miami II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

North Carolina 1+ goals

81%

North Carolina 2+ goals

49%

North Carolina 3+ goals

23%

Inter Miami II 1+ goals

72%

Inter Miami II 2+ goals

36%

Inter Miami II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

North Carolina (draw refunded)

61%

Inter Miami II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

Inter Miami II away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina attack 1.50 + Inter Miami II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.64

Inter Miami II attack 1.09 + North Carolina defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

North Carolina scores more

46%

level

24%

Inter Miami II scores more

29%

North Carolina at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "North Carolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff