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North Carolina vs FC Tulsa — USL Championship 2018

North Carolina
North Carolina
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
10/9/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 37WakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

North Carolina52%
×Draw23%
FC Tulsa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina
1.82
FC Tulsa
1.21

North Carolina creates 50% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 130 away

creates per match

North Carolina
1.83
FC Tulsa
1.19

allows per match

North Carolina
1.23
FC Tulsa
1.81

finishing

North Carolina+0.00on par
FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina ↓

FC Tulsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

North Carolina or draw
75%
North Carolina or FC Tulsa
77%
Draw or FC Tulsa
48%

Winning margin

North Carolina wins by 2+
29%
FC Tulsa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

North Carolina 1+ goals
84%
North Carolina 2+ goals
54%
North Carolina 3+ goals
27%
FC Tulsa 1+ goals
70%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
34%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

North Carolina (draw refunded)
67%
FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

FC Tulsa away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina attack 1.83 + FC Tulsa defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.82

FC Tulsa attack 1.19 + North Carolina defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

North Carolina scores more
52%
level
23%
FC Tulsa scores more
25%

North Carolina at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "North Carolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Carolina vs FC Tulsa

North Carolina beat FC Tulsa 2-0 in USL Championship on October 9, 2024.

The match was played at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary, North Carolina.