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North Carolina vs Charlotte Independence — USL League One 2026

North Carolina
North Carolinaadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Charlotte Independence
Charlotte Independence
11/5/2023USL League OneUSL League One · Championship - FinalWakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

North Carolina42%
×Draw24%
Charlotte Independence34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina
1.61
Charlotte Independence
1.42

North Carolina creates 13% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 68 away

creates per match

North Carolina
1.50
Charlotte Independence
1.41

allows per match

North Carolina
1.43
Charlotte Independence
1.72

finishing

North Carolina+0.00on par
Charlotte Independence+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina ↓

Charlotte Independence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

North Carolina or draw
66%
North Carolina or Charlotte Independence
76%
Draw or Charlotte Independence
58%

Winning margin

North Carolina wins by 2+
21%
Charlotte Independence wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

North Carolina 1+ goals
80%
North Carolina 2+ goals
48%
North Carolina 3+ goals
22%
Charlotte Independence 1+ goals
76%
Charlotte Independence 2+ goals
41%
Charlotte Independence 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

North Carolina (draw refunded)
55%
Charlotte Independence (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

Charlotte Independence away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina attack 1.50 + Charlotte Independence defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.61

Charlotte Independence attack 1.41 + North Carolina defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

North Carolina scores more
42%
level
24%
Charlotte Independence scores more
34%

North Carolina at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "North Carolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One: North Carolina 0–0 Charlotte Independence

North Carolina and Charlotte Independence drew 0-0 in USL League One on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary, North Carolina.