North Carolina 2–1 Central Valley Fuego

North Carolina

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Central Valley Fuego

N. Rincon 68'

G. McLaughlin 22'

C. Chaney 29'

9/28/2022

USL League One · Round 16WakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

North Carolina45%

×Draw23%

Central Valley Fuego31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North CarolinaExpected goals in this matchCentral Valley Fuego

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.40

North Carolina

1.73

Central Valley Fuego

1.40

North Carolina creates 24% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 42 away

1.50

creates per match

1.38

1.43

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

North Carolina

1.50

Central Valley Fuego

1.38

allows per match

North Carolina

1.43

Central Valley Fuego

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Carolina+0.00on par

Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina ↓

Central Valley Fuego →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

North Carolina or draw

69%

North Carolina or Central Valley Fuego

77%

Draw or Central Valley Fuego

55%

Winning margin

North Carolina wins by 2+

24%

Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

North Carolina 1+ goals

82%

North Carolina 2+ goals

52%

North Carolina 3+ goals

25%

Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals

75%

Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals

41%

Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

North Carolina (draw refunded)

59%

Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

Central Valley Fuego away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina attack 1.50 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.73

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.38 + North Carolina defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

North Carolina scores more

45%

level

23%

Central Valley Fuego scores more

31%

North Carolina at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "North Carolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

G. Fernandes

22'

G. McLaughlin↳ N. Rincon

24'

A. Vera

29'

C. Chaney↳ V. Bijev

47'

J. Skelton

54'

D. Casillas← C. Dieye

54'

M. Hornsby← A. Vera

58'

M. Dabo

63'

V. Falck

68'

N. Rincon↳ L. Arriaga

70'

O. Ramos← A. Cerritos

71'

J. Servania← N. Rincon

73'

S. Strong

76'

M. Hornsby

81'

M. Schenfeld← V. Falck

82'

N. Martinez← O. Anderson

82'

90'

90+2'

90+4'

90+5'

North

Central

1

5

2

13

20

A

▼

Bijev

19

▼

Vera

7

Dabo

8

▼

Falck

9

⚽

Chaney

29

▼

Cerritos

24

▼

34

5

2

6

4

8

44

7

A

Arriaga

31

⚽A

▼

Rincon

9

▼

Anderson

19

⚽

McLaughli

Manager: J. Bradford

71'▲J. Servania←▼N. Rincon

82'▲N. Martinez←▼O. Anderson

North Carolina substitutes

10Servania14Martinez26McDowell1Holliday23Mariche16Molina25Fischer

Manager: M. Vasquez

54'▲D. Casillas←▼C. Dieye

54'▲M. Hornsby←▼A. Vera

70'▲O. Ramos←▼A. Cerritos

81'▲M. Schenfeld←▼V. Falck

82'▲Z. Vasquez←▼V. Bijev

Central Valley Fuego substitutes

22Casillas25Hornsby6Ramos30Schenfeld26Vasquez28North4Gillingham

USL League One: North Carolina 2–1 Central Valley Fuego

North Carolina beat Central Valley Fuego 2-1 in USL League One on September 28, 2022.

Goals: G. McLaughlin (22'), C. Chaney (29'), N. Rincon (68').

The match was played at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary, North Carolina.

North Carolina vs Central Valley Fuego — USL League One 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

USL League One: North Carolina 2–1 Central Valley Fuego