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North Carolina Fusion vs Tampa Bay United — USL League Two 2018

North Carolina Fusion
North Carolina Fusionadvanced
FT
5 – 0
Tampa Bay United
Tampa Bay United
7/17/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Quarter-finalsSoutheastern Freight Lines Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

North Carolina Fusion55%
×Draw22%
Tampa Bay United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina Fusion
2.02
Tampa Bay United
1.23

North Carolina Fusion creates 64% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 25 away

creates per match

North Carolina Fusion
2.36
Tampa Bay United
1.28

allows per match

North Carolina Fusion
1.18
Tampa Bay United
1.68

finishing

North Carolina Fusion+0.00on par
Tampa Bay United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Fusion ↓

Tampa Bay United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

North Carolina Fusion or draw
77%
North Carolina Fusion or Tampa Bay United
78%
Draw or Tampa Bay United
45%

Winning margin

North Carolina Fusion wins by 2+
33%
Tampa Bay United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

North Carolina Fusion 1+ goals
87%
North Carolina Fusion 2+ goals
60%
North Carolina Fusion 3+ goals
33%
Tampa Bay United 1+ goals
71%
Tampa Bay United 2+ goals
35%
Tampa Bay United 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Fusion (draw refunded)
71%
Tampa Bay United (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Fusion at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.18 · 50 matches

Tampa Bay United away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Fusion attack 2.36 + Tampa Bay United defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.02

Tampa Bay United attack 1.28 + North Carolina Fusion defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

North Carolina Fusion scores more
55%
level
22%
Tampa Bay United scores more
23%

North Carolina Fusion at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "North Carolina Fusion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

North Carolina Fusion 5 – 0 Tampa Bay United

North Carolina Fusion beat Tampa Bay United 5-0 in USL League Two on July 17, 2021.

The match was played at Southeastern Freight Lines Soccer Complex in Columbia, South Carolina.