North Carolina Courage W 5–1 Houston Dash W

North Carolina Courage W

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Houston Dash W

3/16/2024

NWSL Women · Round 2WakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

North Carolina Courage W52%

×Draw24%

Houston Dash W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Carolina Courage WExpected goals in this matchHouston Dash W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.05

North Carolina Courage W

1.66

Houston Dash W

1.05

North Carolina Courage W creates 58% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 81 away

1.82

creates per match

1.04

1.06

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

North Carolina Courage W

1.82

Houston Dash W

1.04

allows per match

North Carolina Courage W

1.06

Houston Dash W

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Houston Dash W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Courage W ↓

Houston Dash W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

North Carolina Courage W or draw

76%

North Carolina Courage W or Houston Dash W

76%

Draw or Houston Dash W

48%

Winning margin

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+

28%

Houston Dash W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals

81%

North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals

49%

North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals

23%

Houston Dash W 1+ goals

65%

Houston Dash W 2+ goals

28%

Houston Dash W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)

68%

Houston Dash W (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Courage W at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 83 matches

Houston Dash W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.82 + Houston Dash W defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.66

Houston Dash W attack 1.04 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

North Carolina Courage W scores more

52%

level

24%

Houston Dash W scores more

24%

North Carolina Courage W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff