Kashima 1–0 Ventforet Kofu: Result & Stats

Kashima

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ventforet Kofu

S. Doi 76'

11/21/2018

League #102 · Quarter-finalsYamanashi Chuo Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kashima36%

×Draw25%

Ventforet Kofu39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KashimaExpected goals in this matchVentforet Kofu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.50

Kashima

1.42

Ventforet Kofu

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.83

creates per match

1.67

1.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Kashima

1.83

Ventforet Kofu

1.67

allows per match

Kashima

1.33

Ventforet Kofu

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kashima+0.00on par

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Ventforet Kofu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kashima or draw

61%

Kashima or Ventforet Kofu

75%

Draw or Ventforet Kofu

64%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+

17%

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals

76%

Kashima 2+ goals

41%

Kashima 3+ goals

17%

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals

78%

Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals

44%

Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)

48%

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Ventforet Kofu away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 1.83 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.67 + Kashima defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kashima scores more

36%

level

25%

Ventforet Kofu scores more

39%

Ventforet Kofu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'

S. Doi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff