Norrköping W 2–1 Växjö W: Result & Stats

Norrköping W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Växjö W

V. Koivisto 75'

C. Dawber 12'

Elin Nilsson 58'

3/27/2023

Damallsvenskan · Round 1PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Norrköping W38%

×Draw22%

Växjö W39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norrköping WExpected goals in this matchVäxjö W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.76

Norrköping W

1.74

Växjö W

1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.37

creates per match

2.09

1.44

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Norrköping W

1.37

Växjö W

2.09

allows per match

Norrköping W

1.44

Växjö W

2.10

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Norrköping W-0.57scores less

Växjö W-0.09on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrköping W ↓

Växjö W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Norrköping W or draw

61%

Norrköping W or Växjö W

78%

Draw or Växjö W

62%

Winning margin

Norrköping W wins by 2+

20%

Växjö W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Norrköping W 1+ goals

82%

Norrköping W 2+ goals

52%

Norrköping W 3+ goals

25%

Växjö W 1+ goals

83%

Växjö W 2+ goals

52%

Växjö W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Norrköping W (draw refunded)

49%

Växjö W (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrköping W at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.44 · 5 matches

Växjö W away — creates 2.09, concedes 2.10 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrköping W attack 1.37 + Växjö W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.74

Växjö W attack 2.09 + Norrköping W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Norrköping W scores more

38%

level

22%

Växjö W scores more

39%

Växjö W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Växjö W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

C. Dawber

58'

Elin Nilsson

63'

D. Dupuy← A. Altheden

71'

N. Robertson← C. Dawber

75'

V. Koivisto

80'

Rosita← J. Kemppi

83'

D. Dupuy

84'

J. Egeriis← D. Zomers

89'

A. Bugre← V. Koivisto

Norrköping

Växjö

1

Högrell

3

Pennsäter

5

▼

4

77

6

33

⚽

Nilsson

17

Johansson

15

▼

9

10

1

2

4

24

23

▼

Zomers

14

Burvall

17

⚽

▼

Koivisto

5

Cato

19

Ravnell

22

⚽

▼

Dawber

10

Leidhamma

Manager: T. Fredheim

71'▲N. Robertson←▼C. Dawber

84'▲J. Egeriis←▼D. Zomers

89'▲A. Bugre←▼V. Koivisto

Norrköping W substitutes

9Robertson6Egeriis7Bugre8Wiklander20Cajlakovič25Veber29Nayler

Manager: O. Unogård

63'▲D. Dupuy←▼A. Altheden

80'▲Rosita←▼J. Kemppi

Växjö W substitutes

21Dupuy26Rosita8Mattsson14Thomsen20Dahl93Davidsson97Nilsson