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Norrköping W vs KIF Örebro W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Norrköping W
Norrköping W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
KIF Örebro W
KIF Örebro W
5/13/2024DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 6PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Norrköping W47%
×Draw26%
KIF Örebro W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norrköping W
1.48
KIF Örebro W
1.06

Norrköping W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 62 away

creates per match

Norrköping W
1.07
KIF Örebro W
0.90

allows per match

Norrköping W
1.22
KIF Örebro W
1.89

finishing

Norrköping W+0.00on par
KIF Örebro W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrköping W ↓

KIF Örebro W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Norrköping W or draw
73%
Norrköping W or KIF Örebro W
74%
Draw or KIF Örebro W
53%

Winning margin

Norrköping W wins by 2+
23%
KIF Örebro W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Norrköping W 1+ goals
77%
Norrköping W 2+ goals
43%
Norrköping W 3+ goals
19%
KIF Örebro W 1+ goals
65%
KIF Örebro W 2+ goals
29%
KIF Örebro W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Norrköping W (draw refunded)
63%
KIF Örebro W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrköping W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

KIF Örebro W away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.89 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrköping W attack 1.07 + KIF Örebro W defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

KIF Örebro W attack 0.90 + Norrköping W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Norrköping W scores more
47%
level
26%
KIF Örebro W scores more
27%

Norrköping W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Norrköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Damallsvenskan: Norrköping W 2–1 KIF Örebro W

Norrköping W beat KIF Örebro W 2-1 in Damallsvenskan on May 13, 2024.

The match was played at PlatinumCars Arena in Norrköping.