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Norrköping W vs Hammarby W — Damallsvenskan 2025

Norrköping W
Norrköping W
Preview
14:00
Hammarby W
Hammarby W
7/25/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 13Norrkopings Idrottspark
Big match
55%
Hammarby W
model favours
22%23%55%

Hammarby W score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Norrköping W22%
×Draw23%
Hammarby W55%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norrköping W
1.02
Hammarby W
1.78

Hammarby W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

creates per match

Norrköping W
1.25
Hammarby W
2.21

allows per match

Norrköping W
1.35
Hammarby W
0.79

finishing

Norrköping W+0.00on par
Hammarby W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrköping W ↓

Hammarby W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Norrköping W or draw
45%
Norrköping W or Hammarby W
77%
Draw or Hammarby W
78%

Winning margin

Norrköping W wins by 2+
8%
Hammarby W wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Norrköping W 1+ goals
64%
Norrköping W 2+ goals
27%
Norrköping W 3+ goals
8%
Hammarby W 1+ goals
83%
Hammarby W 2+ goals
53%
Hammarby W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Norrköping W (draw refunded)
28%
Hammarby W (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrköping W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

Hammarby W away — creates 2.21, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrköping W attack 1.25 + Hammarby W defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.02

Hammarby W attack 2.21 + Norrköping W defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Norrköping W scores more
22%
level
23%
Hammarby W scores more
55%

Hammarby W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Norrköping W score first in only 25% of matches
  • Hammarby W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 67% of Hammarby W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Hammarby W’s matches
  • Norrköping W sit 12, Hammarby W 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DDDLL
W
DWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Norrköping W host Hammarby W

July 25, 2026: Norrköping W take on Hammarby W in Damallsvenskan. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Norrköping W host Hammarby W at Norrkopings Idrottspark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.