Norrköping W 0–3 Hammarby W: Result & Stats

Norrköping W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Hammarby W

J. Blakstad 51'

E. Wangerheim 42', 3'

6/29/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 14PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Norrköping W19%

×Draw23%

Hammarby W58%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norrköping WExpected goals in this matchHammarby W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.78

Norrköping W

0.90

Hammarby W

1.78

Hammarby W creates 98% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

1.16

creates per match

2.34

1.22

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Norrköping W

1.16

Hammarby W

2.34

allows per match

Norrköping W

1.22

Hammarby W

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norrköping W+0.00on par

Hammarby W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrköping W ↓

Hammarby W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Norrköping W or draw

42%

Norrköping W or Hammarby W

77%

Draw or Hammarby W

81%

Winning margin

Norrköping W wins by 2+

6%

Hammarby W wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Norrköping W 1+ goals

59%

Norrköping W 2+ goals

23%

Norrköping W 3+ goals

6%

Hammarby W 1+ goals

83%

Hammarby W 2+ goals

53%

Hammarby W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Norrköping W (draw refunded)

24%

Hammarby W (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrköping W at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Hammarby W away — creates 2.34, concedes 0.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrköping W attack 1.16 + Hammarby W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.90

Hammarby W attack 2.34 + Norrköping W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Norrköping W scores more

19%

level

23%

Hammarby W scores more

58%

Hammarby W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

E. Wangerheim

42'

E. Wangerheim

46'

S. Fornes← A. Hellekant

51'

J. Blakstad

62'

T. Sørbo← J. Roddar

64'

F. Lindwall← E. Rombing

65'

D. Leskinen← V. Milivojević

77'

S. Lennartsson← S. Holmberg

79'

M. Wiklander← W. Leidhammar

83'

E. Burvall← F. Andersson

88'

E. Gibson← J. Blakstad

88'

L. Ihrfelt← S. Vallotto

Norrköping3-4-3

Hammarby4-2-3-1

11

⚽2

Wangerhei

41

⚽

▼

Blakstad

20

Hasund

10

▼

Vallotto

7

Joramo

6

▼

25

2

18

31

▼

1

1

4

2

23

19

22

▼

Andersson

5

Cato

7

▼

Rombing

17

▼

Hellekant

10

▼

Leidhamma

11

▼

Milivojev

Manager: T. Fredheim

46'▲S. Fornes←▼A. Hellekant

64'▲F. Lindwall←▼E. Rombing

65'▲D. Leskinen←▼V. Milivojević

79'▲M. Wiklander←▼W. Leidhammar

83'▲E. Burvall←▼F. Andersson

Norrköping W substitutes

9Fornes21Lindwall20Leskinen8Wiklander14Burvall3Valcic32Lind

Manager: M. Sjögren

62'▲T. Sørbo←▼J. Roddar

77'▲S. Lennartsson←▼S. Holmberg

88'▲E. Gibson←▼J. Blakstad

88'▲L. Ihrfelt←▼S. Vallotto

Hammarby W substitutes

4Sørbo17Lennartsson8Gibson15Ihrfelt14Andersson29Edrud16Guillou