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Norrköping W vs Häcken W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Norrköping W
Norrköping W
Preview
14:00
Häcken W
Häcken W
9/26/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 20Norrkopings Idrottspark
Big match
59%
Häcken W
model favours
18%23%59%

Norrköping W score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Norrköping W18%
×Draw23%
Häcken W59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norrköping W
0.85
Häcken W
1.75

Häcken W creates 106% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 58 away

creates per match

Norrköping W
1.07
Häcken W
2.28

allows per match

Norrköping W
1.22
Häcken W
0.64

finishing

Norrköping W+0.00on par
Häcken W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrköping W ↓

Häcken W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Norrköping W or draw
41%
Norrköping W or Häcken W
77%
Draw or Häcken W
82%

Winning margin

Norrköping W wins by 2+
6%
Häcken W wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Norrköping W 1+ goals
57%
Norrköping W 2+ goals
21%
Norrköping W 3+ goals
5%
Häcken W 1+ goals
83%
Häcken W 2+ goals
52%
Häcken W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Norrköping W (draw refunded)
23%
Häcken W (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrköping W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

Häcken W away — creates 2.28, concedes 0.64 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrköping W attack 1.07 + Häcken W defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.85

Häcken W attack 2.28 + Norrköping W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Norrköping W scores more
18%
level
23%
Häcken W scores more
59%

Häcken W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Häcken W have won 3 in a row
  • Häcken W score first in only 25% of matches
  • Häcken W have won 6 of the last 7 meetings
  • Norrköping W win just 20% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
  • Norrköping W sit 12, Häcken W 1 in the table
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Häcken W’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DDDLL
W
WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Norrköping W vs Häcken W — Match Preview

Norrköping W face Häcken W on September 26, 2026 in this Damallsvenskan fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Norrköping W host Häcken W at Norrkopings Idrottspark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.