Häcken W 4–3 Norrköping W: Result & Stats

Häcken W

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Norrköping W

4/13/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 1Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Häcken W63%

×Draw20%

Norrköping W17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Häcken WExpected goals in this matchNorrköping W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.99

Häcken W

2.12

Norrköping W

0.99

Häcken W creates 114% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 44 away

2.91

creates per match

1.30

0.68

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Häcken W

2.91

Norrköping W

1.30

allows per match

Häcken W

0.68

Norrköping W

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Häcken W+0.00on par

Norrköping W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

Norrköping W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw

83%

Häcken W or Norrköping W

80%

Draw or Norrköping W

37%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+

39%

Norrköping W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals

88%

Häcken W 2+ goals

62%

Häcken W 3+ goals

35%

Norrköping W 1+ goals

63%

Norrköping W 2+ goals

26%

Norrköping W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)

79%

Norrköping W (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.68 · 57 matches

Norrköping W away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 2.91 + Norrköping W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 2.12

Norrköping W attack 1.30 + Häcken W defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Häcken W scores more

63%

level

20%

Norrköping W scores more

17%

Häcken W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff