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Norrköping W vs Älvsjö AIK W — Elitettan 2021

Norrköping W
Norrköping W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Älvsjö AIK W
Älvsjö AIK W
5/21/2022ElitettanElitettan · Round 8PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Norrköping W59%
×Draw21%
Älvsjö AIK W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norrköping W
2.05
Älvsjö AIK W
1.10

Norrköping W creates 86% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Norrköping W
1.42
Älvsjö AIK W
1.12

allows per match

Norrköping W
1.08
Älvsjö AIK W
2.69

finishing

Norrköping W+0.00on par
Älvsjö AIK W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrköping W ↓

Älvsjö AIK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Norrköping W or draw
80%
Norrköping W or Älvsjö AIK W
79%
Draw or Älvsjö AIK W
41%

Winning margin

Norrköping W wins by 2+
36%
Älvsjö AIK W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Norrköping W 1+ goals
87%
Norrköping W 2+ goals
61%
Norrköping W 3+ goals
33%
Älvsjö AIK W 1+ goals
67%
Älvsjö AIK W 2+ goals
30%
Älvsjö AIK W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Norrköping W (draw refunded)
75%
Älvsjö AIK W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrköping W at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Älvsjö AIK W away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrköping W attack 1.42 + Älvsjö AIK W defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.05

Älvsjö AIK W attack 1.12 + Norrköping W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Norrköping W scores more
59%
level
21%
Älvsjö AIK W scores more
20%

Norrköping W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Norrköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Norrköping W vs Älvsjö AIK W

Norrköping W beat Älvsjö AIK W 2-0 in Elitettan on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at PlatinumCars Arena in Norrköping.