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Normannia Gmünd vs FC Nöttingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Normannia Gmünd
Normannia Gmünd
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
FC Nöttingen
FC Nöttingen
8/2/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 1Jahnstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Normannia Gmünd43%
×Draw22%
FC Nöttingen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Normannia Gmünd
1.85
FC Nöttingen
1.67

Normannia Gmünd creates 11% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 93 away

creates per match

Normannia Gmünd
1.82
FC Nöttingen
1.96

allows per match

Normannia Gmünd
1.39
FC Nöttingen
1.89

finishing

Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par
FC Nöttingen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Normannia Gmünd ↓

FC Nöttingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Normannia Gmünd or draw
65%
Normannia Gmünd or FC Nöttingen
78%
Draw or FC Nöttingen
57%

Winning margin

Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+
23%
FC Nöttingen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals
84%
Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals
55%
Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals
28%
FC Nöttingen 1+ goals
81%
FC Nöttingen 2+ goals
50%
FC Nöttingen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)
55%
FC Nöttingen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Normannia Gmünd at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

FC Nöttingen away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.82 + FC Nöttingen defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.85

FC Nöttingen attack 1.96 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Normannia Gmünd scores more
43%
level
22%
FC Nöttingen scores more
35%

Normannia Gmünd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Normannia Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Normannia Gmünd vs FC Nöttingen

Normannia Gmünd beat FC Nöttingen 5-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Jahnstadion in Schwäbisch Gmünd.