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Normannia Gmünd vs FC 08 Villingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Normannia Gmünd
Normannia Gmünd
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC 08 Villingen
FC 08 Villingen
9/2/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 6Jahnstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Normannia Gmünd41%
×Draw24%
FC 08 Villingen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Normannia Gmünd
1.65
FC 08 Villingen
1.50

Normannia Gmünd creates 10% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 76 away

creates per match

Normannia Gmünd
1.82
FC 08 Villingen
1.61

allows per match

Normannia Gmünd
1.39
FC 08 Villingen
1.47

finishing

Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par
FC 08 Villingen+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Normannia Gmünd ↓

FC 08 Villingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Normannia Gmünd or draw
65%
Normannia Gmünd or FC 08 Villingen
76%
Draw or FC 08 Villingen
59%

Winning margin

Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+
21%
FC 08 Villingen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals
81%
Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals
49%
Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals
23%
FC 08 Villingen 1+ goals
78%
FC 08 Villingen 2+ goals
44%
FC 08 Villingen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)
54%
FC 08 Villingen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Normannia Gmünd at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

FC 08 Villingen away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.82 + FC 08 Villingen defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.65

FC 08 Villingen attack 1.61 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Normannia Gmünd scores more
41%
level
24%
FC 08 Villingen scores more
35%

Normannia Gmünd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Normannia Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Normannia Gmünd vs FC 08 Villingen

Normannia Gmünd beat FC 08 Villingen 2-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Jahnstadion in Schwäbisch Gmünd.