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Nordvärmland vs Sifhälla — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Nordvärmland
Nordvärmland
FT
0 – 1
Sifhälla
Sifhälla
5/14/2022Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 7Lillängen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nordvärmland31%
×Draw24%
Sifhälla46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nordvärmland
1.38
Sifhälla
1.72

Sifhälla creates 25% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 13 away

creates per match

Nordvärmland
1.61
Sifhälla
1.54

allows per match

Nordvärmland
1.90
Sifhälla
1.15

finishing

Nordvärmland+0.00on par
Sifhälla+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nordvärmland ↓

Sifhälla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Nordvärmland or draw
54%
Nordvärmland or Sifhälla
76%
Draw or Sifhälla
69%

Winning margin

Nordvärmland wins by 2+
14%
Sifhälla wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Nordvärmland 1+ goals
75%
Nordvärmland 2+ goals
40%
Nordvärmland 3+ goals
16%
Sifhälla 1+ goals
82%
Sifhälla 2+ goals
51%
Sifhälla 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Nordvärmland (draw refunded)
40%
Sifhälla (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nordvärmland at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.90 · 59 matches

Sifhälla away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nordvärmland attack 1.61 + Sifhälla defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sifhälla attack 1.54 + Nordvärmland defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nordvärmland scores more
31%
level
24%
Sifhälla scores more
46%

Sifhälla at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sifhälla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nordvärmland vs Sifhälla

Sifhälla beat Nordvärmland 1-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Lillängen in Sysslebäck.