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Nordstrand vs Melbo IL — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Nordstrand
Nordstrand
CANC
14:00
Melbo IL
Melbo IL
10/10/20203. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nordstrand54%
×Draw23%
Melbo IL24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nordstrand
1.89
Melbo IL
1.19

Nordstrand creates 59% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Nordstrand
2.11
Melbo IL
1.00

allows per match

Nordstrand
1.37
Melbo IL
1.67

finishing

Nordstrand+0.00on par
Melbo IL+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nordstrand ↓

Melbo IL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Nordstrand or draw
76%
Nordstrand or Melbo IL
77%
Draw or Melbo IL
46%

Winning margin

Nordstrand wins by 2+
31%
Melbo IL wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nordstrand 1+ goals
85%
Nordstrand 2+ goals
56%
Nordstrand 3+ goals
29%
Melbo IL 1+ goals
70%
Melbo IL 2+ goals
33%
Melbo IL 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nordstrand (draw refunded)
69%
Melbo IL (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nordstrand at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Melbo IL away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nordstrand attack 2.11 + Melbo IL defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.89

Melbo IL attack 1.00 + Nordstrand defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nordstrand scores more
54%
level
23%
Melbo IL scores more
24%

Nordstrand at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nordstrand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Nordstrand host Melbo IL

October 10, 2020: Nordstrand take on Melbo IL in 3. Division - Girone 6. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.