Nordlingen 2–1 Kottern: Result & Stats

Nordlingen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Kottern

10/11/2025

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 14Gerd-Müller-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Nordlingen43%

×Draw24%

Kottern33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NordlingenExpected goals in this matchKottern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.43

Nordlingen

1.65

Kottern

1.43

Nordlingen creates 15% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 66 away

1.73

creates per match

1.44

1.42

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Nordlingen

1.73

Kottern

1.44

allows per match

Nordlingen

1.42

Kottern

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nordlingen+0.00on par

Kottern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nordlingen ↓

Kottern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Nordlingen or draw

67%

Nordlingen or Kottern

76%

Draw or Kottern

57%

Winning margin

Nordlingen wins by 2+

22%

Kottern wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nordlingen 1+ goals

81%

Nordlingen 2+ goals

49%

Nordlingen 3+ goals

23%

Kottern 1+ goals

76%

Kottern 2+ goals

42%

Kottern 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Nordlingen (draw refunded)

56%

Kottern (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nordlingen at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 66 matches

Kottern away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.56 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nordlingen attack 1.73 + Kottern defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kottern attack 1.44 + Nordlingen defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nordlingen scores more

43%

level

24%

Kottern scores more

33%

Nordlingen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nordlingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff