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Nordia Jerusalem vs Shimshon Kafr Qasim — State Cup 2019

Nordia Jerusalem
Nordia Jerusalem
FT
2 – 0
Shimshon Kafr Qasim
Shimshon Kafr Qasim
8/29/2024State CupState Cup · 5th Round (Liga Alef)Jerusalem Cedar Valley 2 grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nordia Jerusalem82%
×Draw12%
Shimshon Kafr Qasim6%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nordia Jerusalem
2.81
Shimshon Kafr Qasim
0.60

Nordia Jerusalem creates 368% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nordia Jerusalem
2.30
Shimshon Kafr Qasim
0.00

allows per match

Nordia Jerusalem
1.20
Shimshon Kafr Qasim
3.33

finishing

Nordia Jerusalem+0.00on par
Shimshon Kafr Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nordia Jerusalem ↓

Shimshon Kafr Qasim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Nordia Jerusalem or draw
94%
Nordia Jerusalem or Shimshon Kafr Qasim
88%
Draw or Shimshon Kafr Qasim
18%

Winning margin

Nordia Jerusalem wins by 2+
62%
Shimshon Kafr Qasim wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Nordia Jerusalem 1+ goals
94%
Nordia Jerusalem 2+ goals
76%
Nordia Jerusalem 3+ goals
52%
Shimshon Kafr Qasim 1+ goals
45%
Shimshon Kafr Qasim 2+ goals
12%
Shimshon Kafr Qasim 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nordia Jerusalem (draw refunded)
94%
Shimshon Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nordia Jerusalem at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Shimshon Kafr Qasim away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nordia Jerusalem attack 2.30 + Shimshon Kafr Qasim defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.81

Shimshon Kafr Qasim attack 0.00 + Nordia Jerusalem defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Nordia Jerusalem scores more
82%
level
12%
Shimshon Kafr Qasim scores more
6%

Nordia Jerusalem at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Nordia Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nordia Jerusalem vs Shimshon Kafr Qasim

Nordia Jerusalem beat Shimshon Kafr Qasim 2-0 in State Cup on August 29, 2024.

The match was played at Jerusalem Cedar Valley 2 grass in Jerusalem.