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Nordia Jerusalem vs Hapoel Rishon LeZion — State Cup 2019

Nordia Jerusalem
Nordia Jerusalem
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1/9/2024State CupState Cup · 7th RoundJerusalem Cedar Valley 2 grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nordia Jerusalem61%
×Draw20%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nordia Jerusalem
2.15
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.10

Nordia Jerusalem creates 95% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Nordia Jerusalem
2.30
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.00

allows per match

Nordia Jerusalem
1.20
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
2.00

finishing

Nordia Jerusalem+0.00on par
Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nordia Jerusalem ↓

Hapoel Rishon LeZion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Nordia Jerusalem or draw
81%
Nordia Jerusalem or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
80%
Draw or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
39%

Winning margin

Nordia Jerusalem wins by 2+
38%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nordia Jerusalem 1+ goals
88%
Nordia Jerusalem 2+ goals
63%
Nordia Jerusalem 3+ goals
36%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
67%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
30%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nordia Jerusalem (draw refunded)
77%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nordia Jerusalem at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nordia Jerusalem attack 2.30 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.00 + Nordia Jerusalem defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Nordia Jerusalem scores more
61%
level
20%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
19%

Nordia Jerusalem at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nordia Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nordia Jerusalem vs Hapoel Rishon LeZion

Hapoel Rishon LeZion beat Nordia Jerusalem 2-0 in State Cup on January 9, 2024.

The match was played at Jerusalem Cedar Valley 2 grass in Jerusalem.