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Nordia Jerusalem vs Hapoel Bnei Ashdod — State Cup 2019

Nordia Jerusalem
Nordia Jerusalem
FT
3 – 1
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
8/30/2022State CupState Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Jerusalem Cedar Valley 2 grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nordia Jerusalem65%
×Draw20%
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nordia Jerusalem
2.15
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
0.94

Nordia Jerusalem creates 129% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nordia Jerusalem
2.30
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
0.67

allows per match

Nordia Jerusalem
1.20
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
2.00

finishing

Nordia Jerusalem+0.00on par
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nordia Jerusalem ↓

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Nordia Jerusalem or draw
85%
Nordia Jerusalem or Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
80%
Draw or Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
35%

Winning margin

Nordia Jerusalem wins by 2+
41%
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nordia Jerusalem 1+ goals
88%
Nordia Jerusalem 2+ goals
63%
Nordia Jerusalem 3+ goals
36%
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod 1+ goals
61%
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod 2+ goals
24%
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nordia Jerusalem (draw refunded)
81%
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nordia Jerusalem at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nordia Jerusalem attack 2.30 + Hapoel Bnei Ashdod defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod attack 0.67 + Nordia Jerusalem defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Nordia Jerusalem scores more
65%
level
20%
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod scores more
15%

Nordia Jerusalem at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Nordia Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Nordia Jerusalem 3–1 Hapoel Bnei Ashdod

Nordia Jerusalem beat Hapoel Bnei Ashdod 3-1 in State Cup on August 30, 2022.

The match was played at Jerusalem Cedar Valley 2 grass in Jerusalem.