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Noravank vs Sevan — Premier League 2019

Noravank
Noravank
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sevan
Sevan
11/1/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Charentsavan City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Noravank46%
×Draw28%
Sevan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noravank
1.35
Sevan
0.93

Noravank creates 45% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

creates per match

Noravank
1.41
Sevan
0.57

allows per match

Noravank
1.29
Sevan
1.29

finishing

Noravank+0.00on par
Sevan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noravank ↓

Sevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Noravank or draw
74%
Noravank or Sevan
72%
Draw or Sevan
54%

Winning margin

Noravank wins by 2+
22%
Sevan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Noravank 1+ goals
74%
Noravank 2+ goals
39%
Noravank 3+ goals
15%
Sevan 1+ goals
61%
Sevan 2+ goals
24%
Sevan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Noravank (draw refunded)
64%
Sevan (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noravank at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Sevan away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noravank attack 1.41 + Sevan defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sevan attack 0.57 + Noravank defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Noravank scores more
46%
level
28%
Sevan scores more
26%

Noravank at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Noravank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Noravank 0–1 Sevan

Sevan beat Noravank 1-0 in Premier League on November 1, 2021.

The match was played at Charentsavan City Stadium in Charentsavan.