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Noravank vs FC Urartu — Premier League 2019

Noravank
Noravank
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Urartu
FC Urartu
10/21/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Charentsavan City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Noravank33%
×Draw26%
FC Urartu41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noravank
1.21
FC Urartu
1.39

FC Urartu creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 105 away

creates per match

Noravank
1.41
FC Urartu
1.49

allows per match

Noravank
1.29
FC Urartu
1.01

finishing

Noravank+0.00on par
FC Urartu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noravank ↓

FC Urartu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Noravank or draw
59%
Noravank or FC Urartu
74%
Draw or FC Urartu
67%

Winning margin

Noravank wins by 2+
14%
FC Urartu wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Noravank 1+ goals
70%
Noravank 2+ goals
34%
Noravank 3+ goals
12%
FC Urartu 1+ goals
75%
FC Urartu 2+ goals
40%
FC Urartu 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Noravank (draw refunded)
44%
FC Urartu (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noravank at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

FC Urartu away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noravank attack 1.41 + FC Urartu defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.21

FC Urartu attack 1.49 + Noravank defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Noravank scores more
33%
level
26%
FC Urartu scores more
41%

FC Urartu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Urartu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Noravank vs FC Urartu

FC Urartu beat Noravank 1-0 in Premier League on October 21, 2021.

The match was played at Charentsavan City Stadium in Charentsavan.