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Noravank vs Banants II — First League 2019

Noravank
Noravank
FT
2 – 0
Banants II
Banants II
11/30/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Charentsavan City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Noravank47%
×Draw24%
Banants II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noravank
1.71
Banants II
1.28

Noravank creates 34% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 99 away

creates per match

Noravank
1.64
Banants II
1.71

allows per match

Noravank
0.86
Banants II
1.79

finishing

Noravank+0.00on par
Banants II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noravank ↓

Banants II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Noravank or draw
71%
Noravank or Banants II
76%
Draw or Banants II
53%

Winning margin

Noravank wins by 2+
25%
Banants II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Noravank 1+ goals
82%
Noravank 2+ goals
51%
Noravank 3+ goals
24%
Banants II 1+ goals
72%
Banants II 2+ goals
37%
Banants II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Noravank (draw refunded)
62%
Banants II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noravank at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Banants II away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noravank attack 1.64 + Banants II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Banants II attack 1.71 + Noravank defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Noravank scores more
47%
level
24%
Banants II scores more
29%

Noravank at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Noravank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Noravank 2–0 Banants II

Noravank beat Banants II 2-0 in First League on November 30, 2020.

The match was played at Charentsavan City Stadium in Charentsavan.