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Noravank vs Ararat-Armenia — Premier League 2019

Noravank
Noravank
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
3/10/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Charentsavan City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Noravank28%
×Draw26%
Ararat-Armenia46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noravank
1.10
Ararat-Armenia
1.48

Ararat-Armenia creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 107 away

creates per match

Noravank
1.41
Ararat-Armenia
1.67

allows per match

Noravank
1.29
Ararat-Armenia
0.80

finishing

Noravank+0.00on par
Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noravank ↓

Ararat-Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Noravank or draw
54%
Noravank or Ararat-Armenia
74%
Draw or Ararat-Armenia
72%

Winning margin

Noravank wins by 2+
11%
Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Noravank 1+ goals
67%
Noravank 2+ goals
30%
Noravank 3+ goals
10%
Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals
77%
Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals
43%
Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Noravank (draw refunded)
38%
Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noravank at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Ararat-Armenia away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noravank attack 1.41 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Ararat-Armenia attack 1.67 + Noravank defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Noravank scores more
28%
level
26%
Ararat-Armenia scores more
46%

Ararat-Armenia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Noravank vs Ararat-Armenia

Ararat-Armenia beat Noravank 2-0 in Premier League on March 10, 2022.

The match was played at Charentsavan City Stadium in Charentsavan.