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Noravank vs Alashkert — Premier League 2019

Noravank
Noravank
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Alashkert
Alashkert
12/4/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Charentsavan City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Noravank37%
×Draw26%
Alashkert38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noravank
1.34
Alashkert
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 107 away

creates per match

Noravank
1.41
Alashkert
1.44

allows per match

Noravank
1.29
Alashkert
1.28

finishing

Noravank+0.00on par
Alashkert+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noravank ↓

Alashkert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Noravank or draw
62%
Noravank or Alashkert
74%
Draw or Alashkert
63%

Winning margin

Noravank wins by 2+
16%
Alashkert wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Noravank 1+ goals
74%
Noravank 2+ goals
39%
Noravank 3+ goals
15%
Alashkert 1+ goals
74%
Alashkert 2+ goals
39%
Alashkert 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Noravank (draw refunded)
49%
Alashkert (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noravank at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Alashkert away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noravank attack 1.41 + Alashkert defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

Alashkert attack 1.44 + Noravank defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Noravank scores more
37%
level
26%
Alashkert scores more
38%

Alashkert at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alashkert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Noravank vs Alashkert

Alashkert beat Noravank 2-0 in Premier League on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Charentsavan City Stadium in Charentsavan.