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NoPS vs Ilves — Suomen Cup 2018

NoPS
NoPS
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Ilves
Ilves
5/17/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundNokian keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

NoPS27%
×Draw19%
Ilves53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NoPS
1.73
Ilves
2.44

Ilves creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

creates per match

NoPS
2.40
Ilves
2.28

allows per match

NoPS
2.60
Ilves
1.06

finishing

NoPS+0.00on par
Ilves+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NoPS ↓

Ilves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

NoPS or draw
47%
NoPS or Ilves
81%
Draw or Ilves
73%

Winning margin

NoPS wins by 2+
13%
Ilves wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

NoPS 1+ goals
82%
NoPS 2+ goals
52%
NoPS 3+ goals
25%
Ilves 1+ goals
91%
Ilves 2+ goals
70%
Ilves 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

NoPS (draw refunded)
34%
Ilves (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NoPS at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Ilves away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NoPS attack 2.40 + Ilves defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ilves attack 2.28 + NoPS defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

NoPS scores more
27%
level
19%
Ilves scores more
53%

Ilves at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NoPS vs Ilves

Ilves beat NoPS 5-1 in Suomen Cup on May 17, 2023.

The match was played at Nokian keskuskenttä in Nokia.