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Noordwijk vs Volendam II — Tweede Divisie 2019

Noordwijk
Noordwijk
CANC
13:30
Volendam II
Volendam II
1/16/2021Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 17Sportpark Duinwetering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Noordwijk50%
×Draw21%
Volendam II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noordwijk
2.13
Volendam II
1.58

Noordwijk creates 35% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 49 away

creates per match

Noordwijk
1.70
Volendam II
1.59

allows per match

Noordwijk
1.58
Volendam II
2.57

finishing

Noordwijk+0.00on par
Volendam II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noordwijk ↓

Volendam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Noordwijk or draw
71%
Noordwijk or Volendam II
79%
Draw or Volendam II
50%

Winning margin

Noordwijk wins by 2+
30%
Volendam II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Noordwijk 1+ goals
88%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
63%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
35%
Volendam II 1+ goals
79%
Volendam II 2+ goals
47%
Volendam II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Noordwijk (draw refunded)
64%
Volendam II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noordwijk at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

Volendam II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noordwijk attack 1.70 + Volendam II defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.13

Volendam II attack 1.59 + Noordwijk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Noordwijk scores more
50%
level
21%
Volendam II scores more
29%

Noordwijk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Noordwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Noordwijk host Volendam II

January 16, 2021: Noordwijk take on Volendam II in Tweede Divisie. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Noordwijk host Volendam II at Sportpark Duinwetering.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.