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Noordwijk vs HHC — Tweede Divisie 2019

Noordwijk
Noordwijk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
HHC
HHC
9/23/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 6Sportpark Duinwetering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Noordwijk38%
×Draw24%
HHC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noordwijk
1.57
HHC
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 100 away

creates per match

Noordwijk
1.70
HHC
1.53

allows per match

Noordwijk
1.58
HHC
1.44

finishing

Noordwijk+0.00on par
HHC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noordwijk ↓

HHC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Noordwijk or draw
62%
Noordwijk or HHC
76%
Draw or HHC
62%

Winning margin

Noordwijk wins by 2+
19%
HHC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Noordwijk 1+ goals
79%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
46%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
21%
HHC 1+ goals
79%
HHC 2+ goals
46%
HHC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Noordwijk (draw refunded)
50%
HHC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noordwijk at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

HHC away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noordwijk attack 1.70 + HHC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.57

HHC attack 1.53 + Noordwijk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Noordwijk scores more
38%
level
24%
HHC scores more
38%

Noordwijk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Noordwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Noordwijk 1–0 HHC

Noordwijk beat HHC 1-0 in Tweede Divisie on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Duinwetering in Noordwijk.