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Noordwijk vs Blauw Geel — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Noordwijk
Noordwijk
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Blauw Geel
Blauw Geel
1/17/2026Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 19Sportpark Duinwetering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Noordwijk44%
×Draw23%
Blauw Geel34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noordwijk
1.79
Blauw Geel
1.55

Noordwijk creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 100 away

creates per match

Noordwijk
2.06
Blauw Geel
1.64

allows per match

Noordwijk
1.47
Blauw Geel
1.53

finishing

Noordwijk+0.00on par
Blauw Geel+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noordwijk ↓

Blauw Geel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Noordwijk or draw
66%
Noordwijk or Blauw Geel
77%
Draw or Blauw Geel
56%

Winning margin

Noordwijk wins by 2+
23%
Blauw Geel wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Noordwijk 1+ goals
83%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
53%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
26%
Blauw Geel 1+ goals
79%
Blauw Geel 2+ goals
46%
Blauw Geel 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Noordwijk (draw refunded)
56%
Blauw Geel (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noordwijk at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Blauw Geel away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noordwijk attack 2.06 + Blauw Geel defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.79

Blauw Geel attack 1.64 + Noordwijk defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Noordwijk scores more
44%
level
23%
Blauw Geel scores more
34%

Noordwijk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Noordwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Noordwijk vs Blauw Geel

Noordwijk beat Blauw Geel 4-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on January 17, 2026.

The match was played at Sportpark Duinwetering in Noordwijk.