Nonthaburi 2–0 Bangkok: Result & Stats | League Cup

Nonthaburi

2 – 0

Bangkok

10/20/2021

League Cup · 2nd Qualifying RoundNonthaburi Provincial Stadium‎

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nonthaburi19%

×Draw21%

Bangkok60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NonthaburiExpected goals in this matchBangkok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

2.10

Nonthaburi

1.10

Bangkok

2.10

Bangkok creates 91% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

2.40

1.80

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Nonthaburi

1.00

Bangkok

2.40

allows per match

Nonthaburi

1.80

Bangkok

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nonthaburi+0.00on par

Bangkok+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nonthaburi ↓

Bangkok →

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Nonthaburi or draw

40%

Nonthaburi or Bangkok

79%

Draw or Bangkok

81%

Winning margin

Nonthaburi wins by 2+

Bangkok wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Nonthaburi 1+ goals

67%

Nonthaburi 2+ goals

30%

Nonthaburi 3+ goals

10%

Bangkok 1+ goals

88%

Bangkok 2+ goals

62%

Bangkok 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Nonthaburi (draw refunded)

24%

Bangkok (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Nonthaburi at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Bangkok away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Nonthaburi attack 1.00 + Bangkok defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Bangkok attack 2.40 + Nonthaburi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Nonthaburi scores more

19%

level

21%

Bangkok scores more

60%

Bangkok at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bangkok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff