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Nonthaburi vs Ayutthaya FC — League Cup 2021

Nonthaburi
Nonthaburi
FT
0 – 1
Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
10/19/2022League CupLeague Cup · Play-offsNonthaburi Provincial Stadium‎

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nonthaburi22%
×Draw27%
Ayutthaya FC50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nonthaburi
0.83
Ayutthaya FC
1.40

Ayutthaya FC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nonthaburi
1.00
Ayutthaya FC
1.00

allows per match

Nonthaburi
1.80
Ayutthaya FC
0.67

finishing

Nonthaburi+0.00on par
Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nonthaburi ↓

Ayutthaya FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nonthaburi or draw
50%
Nonthaburi or Ayutthaya FC
73%
Draw or Ayutthaya FC
78%

Winning margin

Nonthaburi wins by 2+
7%
Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Nonthaburi 1+ goals
56%
Nonthaburi 2+ goals
20%
Nonthaburi 3+ goals
5%
Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
75%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
41%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Nonthaburi (draw refunded)
31%
Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nonthaburi at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nonthaburi attack 1.00 + Ayutthaya FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.00 + Nonthaburi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nonthaburi scores more
22%
level
27%
Ayutthaya FC scores more
50%

Ayutthaya FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Nonthaburi 0–1 Ayutthaya FC

Ayutthaya FC beat Nonthaburi 1-0 in League Cup on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at Nonthaburi Provincial Stadium‎ in Nonthaburi.