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Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Samut Sakhon FC — Thai League 2 2018

Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
FT
1 – 0
Samut Sakhon FC
Samut Sakhon FC
4/11/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 9Nong Bua Lam Phu Provincial Sport Stadium (Nong Bua Lam Phu, Mueang Nong Bua Lam Phu District)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya69%
×Draw18%
Samut Sakhon FC13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nong Bua Pitchaya
2.36
Samut Sakhon FC
0.91

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 159% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 48 away

creates per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
2.05
Samut Sakhon FC
0.92

allows per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
0.89
Samut Sakhon FC
2.67

finishing

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par
Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nong Bua Pitchaya ↓

Samut Sakhon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw
87%
Nong Bua Pitchaya or Samut Sakhon FC
82%
Draw or Samut Sakhon FC
31%

Winning margin

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
46%
Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
90%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
68%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
41%
Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals
60%
Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals
23%
Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
84%
Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nong Bua Pitchaya at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Samut Sakhon FC away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 2.05 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.36

Samut Sakhon FC attack 0.92 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
69%
level
18%
Samut Sakhon FC scores more
13%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Nong Bua Pitchaya 1–0 Samut Sakhon FC

Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Samut Sakhon FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on April 11, 2018.

The match was played at Nong Bua Lam Phu Provincial Sport Stadium (Nong Bua Lam Phu, Mueang Nong Bua Lam Phu District).