Nong Bua Pitchaya 2–2 Prime Bangkok: Result & Stats

Nong Bua Pitchaya

AET

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Prime Bangkok

11/30/2022

FA Cup · Round of 32Pitchaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya48%

×Draw19%

Prime Bangkok33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nong Bua PitchayaExpected goals in this matchPrime Bangkok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

2.15

Nong Bua Pitchaya

2.58

Prime Bangkok

2.15

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 20% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

3.50

creates per match

3.67

0.63

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya

3.50

Prime Bangkok

3.67

allows per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya

0.63

Prime Bangkok

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Prime Bangkok+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nong Bua Pitchaya ↓

Prime Bangkok →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw

67%

Nong Bua Pitchaya or Prime Bangkok

81%

Draw or Prime Bangkok

52%

Winning margin

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+

29%

Prime Bangkok wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals

92%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals

72%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals

47%

Prime Bangkok 1+ goals

88%

Prime Bangkok 2+ goals

63%

Prime Bangkok 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)

59%

Prime Bangkok (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Nong Bua Pitchaya at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Prime Bangkok away — creates 3.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 3.50 + Prime Bangkok defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.58

Prime Bangkok attack 3.67 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more

48%

level

19%

Prime Bangkok scores more

33%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prime Bangkok

Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prime Bangkok drew 2-2 in FA Cup on November 30, 2022.

The match was played at Pitchaya Stadium in Nong Bua Lam Phu.

Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prime Bangkok — FA Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prime Bangkok