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Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Pattaya United — Thai League 2 2018

Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pattaya United
Pattaya United
11/25/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 13Pitchaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya60%
×Draw22%
Pattaya United17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.86
Pattaya United
0.88

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 111% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 43 away

creates per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
2.05
Pattaya United
0.86

allows per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
0.89
Pattaya United
1.67

finishing

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par
Pattaya United+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nong Bua Pitchaya ↓

Pattaya United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw
83%
Nong Bua Pitchaya or Pattaya United
78%
Draw or Pattaya United
40%

Winning margin

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
35%
Pattaya United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
84%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
55%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
28%
Pattaya United 1+ goals
59%
Pattaya United 2+ goals
22%
Pattaya United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
78%
Pattaya United (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nong Bua Pitchaya at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Pattaya United away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 2.05 + Pattaya United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.86

Pattaya United attack 0.86 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
60%
level
22%
Pattaya United scores more
17%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Pattaya United

Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Pattaya United 5-1 in Thai League 2 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Pitchaya Stadium in Nong Bua Lam Phu.