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Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Namphong United — FA Cup 2018

Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
FT
6 – 0
Namphong United
Namphong United
9/30/2020FA CupFA Cup · Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya97%
×Draw3%
Namphong United1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nong Bua Pitchaya
5.25
Namphong United
0.48

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 994% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
3.50
Namphong United
0.33

allows per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
0.63
Namphong United
7.00

finishing

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par
Namphong United+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nong Bua Pitchaya ↓

Namphong United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–014%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (14%) · grid covers 55% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
76%24%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw
99%
Nong Bua Pitchaya or Namphong United
97%
Draw or Namphong United
3%

Winning margin

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
90%
Namphong United wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
99%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
95%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
85%
Namphong United 1+ goals
38%
Namphong United 2+ goals
8%
Namphong United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
99%
Namphong United (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nong Bua Pitchaya at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Namphong United away — creates 0.33, concedes 7.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 3.50 + Namphong United defence 7.00 → ÷2 → 5.25

Namphong United attack 0.33 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 97%?"

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
97%
level
3%
Namphong United scores more
1%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 97% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Nong Bua Pitchaya 6–0 Namphong United

Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Namphong United 6-0 in FA Cup on September 30, 2020.