Nong Bua Pitchaya 2–3 Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Nong Bua Pitchaya

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

12/23/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 17Pitchaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya45%

×Draw25%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nong Bua PitchayaExpected goals in this matchNakhon Ratchasima FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.27

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.61

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.27

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 27% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

2.05

creates per match

1.65

0.89

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya

2.05

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.65

allows per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya

0.89

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nong Bua Pitchaya ↓

Nakhon Ratchasima FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw

70%

Nong Bua Pitchaya or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

75%

Draw or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

55%

Winning margin

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+

23%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals

80%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals

48%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals

22%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

72%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

36%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)

60%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nong Bua Pitchaya at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 2.05 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.61

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.65 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more

45%

level

25%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

30%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff