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Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khonkaen — Thai League 2 2018

Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
FT
0 – 1
Khonkaen
Khonkaen
6/22/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 17Nong Bua Lam Phu Provincial Sport Stadium (Nong Bua Lam Phu, Mueang Nong Bua Lam Phu District)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya58%
×Draw23%
Khonkaen19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.85
Khonkaen
0.96

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 93% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 65 away

creates per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
2.05
Khonkaen
1.02

allows per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
0.89
Khonkaen
1.66

finishing

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par
Khonkaen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nong Bua Pitchaya ↓

Khonkaen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw
81%
Nong Bua Pitchaya or Khonkaen
77%
Draw or Khonkaen
42%

Winning margin

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
34%
Khonkaen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
84%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
55%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
28%
Khonkaen 1+ goals
62%
Khonkaen 2+ goals
25%
Khonkaen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
75%
Khonkaen (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nong Bua Pitchaya at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Khonkaen away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 2.05 + Khonkaen defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.85

Khonkaen attack 1.02 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
58%
level
23%
Khonkaen scores more
19%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khonkaen

Khonkaen beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 in Thai League 2 on June 22, 2019.

The match was played at Nong Bua Lam Phu Provincial Sport Stadium (Nong Bua Lam Phu, Mueang Nong Bua Lam Phu District).