Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United — FA Cup 2018

Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
AET
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 3
Khon Kaen United
Khon Kaen United
11/20/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundPitchaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya75%
×Draw15%
Khon Kaen United11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nong Bua Pitchaya
2.83
Khon Kaen United
0.98

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 189% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
3.50
Khon Kaen United
1.33

allows per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
0.63
Khon Kaen United
2.17

finishing

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par
Khon Kaen United+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nong Bua Pitchaya ↓

Khon Kaen United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw
89%
Nong Bua Pitchaya or Khon Kaen United
85%
Draw or Khon Kaen United
25%

Winning margin

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
54%
Khon Kaen United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
94%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
77%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
53%
Khon Kaen United 1+ goals
62%
Khon Kaen United 2+ goals
26%
Khon Kaen United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
88%
Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nong Bua Pitchaya at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Khon Kaen United away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 3.50 + Khon Kaen United defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.83

Khon Kaen United attack 1.33 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
75%
level
15%
Khon Kaen United scores more
11%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United

Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United drew 3-3 in FA Cup on November 20, 2024.

The match was played at Pitchaya Stadium in Nong Bua Lam Phu.