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Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
8/22/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 2Pitchaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya62%
×Draw21%
Kasetsart FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.95
Kasetsart FC
0.89

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 119% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 132 away

creates per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
2.05
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
0.89
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nong Bua Pitchaya ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw
83%
Nong Bua Pitchaya or Kasetsart FC
79%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
38%

Winning margin

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
37%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
86%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
58%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
31%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
59%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
22%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
79%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nong Bua Pitchaya at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 2.05 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.95

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
62%
level
21%
Kasetsart FC scores more
17%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Kasetsart FC

Nong Bua Pitchaya and Kasetsart FC drew 2-2 in Thai League 2 on August 22, 2025.

The match was played at Pitchaya Stadium in Nong Bua Lam Phu.