Nong Bua Pitchaya 4–1 Kasem Bundit University

Nong Bua Pitchaya

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kasem Bundit University

11/24/2021

FA Cup · 2nd RoundPitchaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya79%

×Draw12%

Kasem Bundit University8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nong Bua PitchayaExpected goals in this matchKasem Bundit University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.25

1.01

Nong Bua Pitchaya

3.25

Kasem Bundit University

1.01

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 222% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

3.50

creates per match

1.40

0.63

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya

3.50

Kasem Bundit University

1.40

allows per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya

0.63

Kasem Bundit University

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Kasem Bundit University+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nong Bua Pitchaya ↓

Kasem Bundit University →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw

92%

Nong Bua Pitchaya or Kasem Bundit University

88%

Draw or Kasem Bundit University

21%

Winning margin

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+

61%

Kasem Bundit University wins by 2+

Team goals

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals

96%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals

83%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals

61%

Kasem Bundit University 1+ goals

64%

Kasem Bundit University 2+ goals

27%

Kasem Bundit University 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)

90%

Kasem Bundit University (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Nong Bua Pitchaya at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Kasem Bundit University away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 3.50 + Kasem Bundit University defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.25

Kasem Bundit University attack 1.40 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 79%?"

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more

79%

level

12%

Kasem Bundit University scores more

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff