Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United — Thai League 2 2018

Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chiangmai United
Chiangmai United
12/13/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 17Pitchaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya53%
×Draw24%
Chiangmai United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.72
Chiangmai United
1.04

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 65% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 103 away

creates per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
2.05
Chiangmai United
1.19

allows per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
0.89
Chiangmai United
1.39

finishing

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par
Chiangmai United+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nong Bua Pitchaya ↓

Chiangmai United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw
77%
Nong Bua Pitchaya or Chiangmai United
76%
Draw or Chiangmai United
47%

Winning margin

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
29%
Chiangmai United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
82%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
51%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
25%
Chiangmai United 1+ goals
65%
Chiangmai United 2+ goals
28%
Chiangmai United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
70%
Chiangmai United (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nong Bua Pitchaya at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Chiangmai United away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.39 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 2.05 + Chiangmai United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.72

Chiangmai United attack 1.19 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
53%
level
24%
Chiangmai United scores more
23%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Nong Bua Pitchaya 1–0 Chiangmai United

Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Chiangmai United 1-0 in Thai League 2 on December 13, 2025.

The match was played at Pitchaya Stadium in Nong Bua Lam Phu.