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Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Air Force Central FC — Thai League 2 2018

Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
FT
0 – 0
Air Force Central FC
Air Force Central FC
7/6/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 19Nong Bua Lam Phu Provincial Sport Stadium (Nong Bua Lam Phu, Mueang Nong Bua Lam Phu District)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya61%
×Draw22%
Air Force Central FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.96
Air Force Central FC
0.95

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 106% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

creates per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
2.05
Air Force Central FC
1.00

allows per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
0.89
Air Force Central FC
1.88

finishing

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par
Air Force Central FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nong Bua Pitchaya ↓

Air Force Central FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw
82%
Nong Bua Pitchaya or Air Force Central FC
78%
Draw or Air Force Central FC
39%

Winning margin

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
36%
Air Force Central FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
86%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
58%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
31%
Air Force Central FC 1+ goals
61%
Air Force Central FC 2+ goals
25%
Air Force Central FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
77%
Air Force Central FC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nong Bua Pitchaya at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Air Force Central FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 2.05 + Air Force Central FC defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.96

Air Force Central FC attack 1.00 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
61%
level
22%
Air Force Central FC scores more
18%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Nong Bua Pitchaya 0–0 Air Force Central FC

Nong Bua Pitchaya and Air Force Central FC drew 0-0 in Thai League 2 on July 6, 2019.

The match was played at Nong Bua Lam Phu Provincial Sport Stadium (Nong Bua Lam Phu, Mueang Nong Bua Lam Phu District).