Nona 2–1 Tampa Bay United: Result & Stats

Nona

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tampa Bay United

6/1/2022

USL League Two · Round 21Austin-Tindall Regional Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Nona58%

×Draw23%

Tampa Bay United19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NonaExpected goals in this matchTampa Bay United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.92

Nona

1.81

Tampa Bay United

0.92

Nona creates 97% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 25 away

1.94

creates per match

1.28

0.56

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Nona

1.94

Tampa Bay United

1.28

allows per match

Nona

0.56

Tampa Bay United

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nona+0.00on par

Tampa Bay United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nona ↓

Tampa Bay United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nona or draw

81%

Nona or Tampa Bay United

77%

Draw or Tampa Bay United

42%

Winning margin

Nona wins by 2+

33%

Tampa Bay United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nona 1+ goals

84%

Nona 2+ goals

54%

Nona 3+ goals

27%

Tampa Bay United 1+ goals

60%

Tampa Bay United 2+ goals

23%

Tampa Bay United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nona (draw refunded)

76%

Tampa Bay United (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nona at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.56 · 32 matches

Tampa Bay United away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nona attack 1.94 + Tampa Bay United defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.81

Tampa Bay United attack 1.28 + Nona defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nona scores more

58%

level

23%

Tampa Bay United scores more

19%

Nona at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Nona 2–1 Tampa Bay United

Nona beat Tampa Bay United 2-1 in USL League Two on June 1, 2022.

The match was played at Austin-Tindall Regional Park in Kissimmee.

Nona vs Tampa Bay United — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: Nona 2–1 Tampa Bay United