Nõmme United 0–6 Tammeka: Result & Stats

Nõmme United

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 5

Tammeka

A. Viinapuu 68'

P. Veelma 44', 32' (pen), 17'

C. Ignatius 34'

P. Marin 15'

1/31/2026

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Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nõmme United27%

×Draw18%

Tammeka55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nõmme UnitedExpected goals in this matchTammeka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

2.77

Nõmme United

1.92

Tammeka

2.77

Tammeka creates 44% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

2.33

3.20

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Nõmme United

2.00

Tammeka

2.33

allows per match

Nõmme United

3.20

Tammeka

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nõmme United+0.00on par

Tammeka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nõmme United ↓

Tammeka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Nõmme United or draw

45%

Nõmme United or Tammeka

82%

Draw or Tammeka

73%

Winning margin

Nõmme United wins by 2+

13%

Tammeka wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Nõmme United 1+ goals

85%

Nõmme United 2+ goals

57%

Nõmme United 3+ goals

30%

Tammeka 1+ goals

94%

Tammeka 2+ goals

76%

Tammeka 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Nõmme United (draw refunded)

32%

Tammeka (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nõmme United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Tammeka away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nõmme United attack 2.00 + Tammeka defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Tammeka attack 2.33 + Nõmme United defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nõmme United scores more

27%

level

18%

Tammeka scores more

55%

Tammeka at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tammeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

P. Marin

17'

P. Veelma

32'

P. VeelmaPenalty

34'

C. Ignatius

44'

P. Veelma

68'

A. Viinapuu

Nõmme

Tammeka

Manager: S. Cisakowski

Manager: Marti Pahn