Nõmme United 3–0 Läänemaa Haapsalu: Result & Stats

Nõmme United

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Läänemaa Haapsalu

7/9/2022

Cup · Round of 64Männiku staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nõmme United63%

×Draw16%

Läänemaa Haapsalu21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nõmme UnitedExpected goals in this matchLäänemaa Haapsalu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.38

2.00

Nõmme United

3.38

Läänemaa Haapsalu

2.00

Nõmme United creates 69% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

5.33

creates per match

3.00

1.00

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Nõmme United

5.33

Läänemaa Haapsalu

3.00

allows per match

Nõmme United

1.00

Läänemaa Haapsalu

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nõmme United+0.00on par

Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nõmme United ↓

Läänemaa Haapsalu →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–02%

1–13%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–15%

4–25%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

60%40%

Double chance

Nõmme United or draw

79%

Nõmme United or Läänemaa Haapsalu

84%

Draw or Läänemaa Haapsalu

37%

Winning margin

Nõmme United wins by 2+

44%

Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nõmme United 1+ goals

96%

Nõmme United 2+ goals

84%

Nõmme United 3+ goals

64%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals

86%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals

59%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Nõmme United (draw refunded)

75%

Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Nõmme United at home — creates 5.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Nõmme United attack 5.33 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 3.38

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 3.00 + Nõmme United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Nõmme United scores more

63%

level

16%

Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more

21%

Nõmme United at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Nõmme United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff