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Nõmme United vs K-Järve JK Järve — Esiliiga A 2026

Nõmme United
Nõmme United
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
3/19/2023Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 4Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Nõmme United75%
×Draw15%
K-Järve JK Järve11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nõmme United
2.87
K-Järve JK Järve
1.02

Nõmme United creates 181% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 69 away

creates per match

Nõmme United
2.61
K-Järve JK Järve
0.96

allows per match

Nõmme United
1.09
K-Järve JK Järve
3.13

finishing

Nõmme United+0.00on par
K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nõmme United ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Nõmme United or draw
89%
Nõmme United or K-Järve JK Järve
85%
Draw or K-Järve JK Järve
25%

Winning margin

Nõmme United wins by 2+
54%
K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nõmme United 1+ goals
94%
Nõmme United 2+ goals
77%
Nõmme United 3+ goals
53%
K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
64%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
27%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nõmme United (draw refunded)
87%
K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nõmme United at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.13 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nõmme United attack 2.61 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.87

K-Järve JK Järve attack 0.96 + Nõmme United defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Nõmme United scores more
75%
level
15%
K-Järve JK Järve scores more
11%

Nõmme United at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Nõmme United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Nõmme United 4–2 K-Järve JK Järve

Nõmme United beat K-Järve JK Järve 4-2 in Esiliiga A on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.